Note on the Dollar

Note on the weakness of the dollar. Although we hear a lot from the biggest holders of the US debt and the members of OPEC crying about the weaker Dollar, I don't think they really want to rush into a full scale move away. Why do I say that, think about it right now they would lose a lot of money if there is a rapid shift away from the greenback as they are the holders of this debt, remember also who will buy it from them in the end!!!
So what do I think? well if and I say IF the dollar is put on the chopping block more and continue is decline ( lost 20% of value so far this year) then the market will have to compensate for this devaluation and price equities higher. Yes for those who don't understand, the markets go up 20% but the currency goes down 20% in value you are flat in real monetary terms, you have not gained. Some of you are from developing countries fully understand this equation than most. So yep if the US dollar continue to get kill it is totally possible we go higher. For me I don't think all the pieces will come together to make the market fully compensate for the devaluation of the US dollar and then again I think the debt holders might through some radical means try to prop up the US dollar as they are losing money hand over fist.
A lot of elements to think about and that's why it is very hard to analyze all at once but the secret will be to find the sequence of events and play the markets as such.

Such a beautiful day out here in NC, going outside to have a cup of coffee.


MARKETJEDI