Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Low Rates

After a period of low rates in the Greenspan administrated FED we created numerous bubbles, the internet and housing bubble the two main ones. My radar for the last couple of months have been on the same with the new leadership at the FED.
I know the FED crosses a line of political ideology many times but this is exactly what I fear with extended period of low rates, more bubbles. Today @ 2pm the FED released their minutes from the last meeting and I was in shock. I will let you all know this very few people analyze the FED minutes as it is seen to them as backward looking BUT FED decisions are main to influence future actions. So when the FED change rates it takes awhile to filter throughout the system and see its effect that's why more should analyze these FED minutes.

Two important points of the FED minutes. First the FED explicitly said the economy will not be fully healthy for listen this another 5-6 years! Now that puts me on very cautious ground if I were a CEO of a fortune 1000 company and I would be inclined to continue to cut cost mainly through outsourcing and expansion. Secondly, that rolls into the second point that the FED touched on that of continued double digit unemployment.

I have said it time again, US is going the way of Europe not because as the right would put it we have elected a socialist government but on the contrary we are too focused on Wall Street on profit and not on the human toll on our society. I dont think we will ever see 5% unemployment because we are in a new phase economically where that will just be impossible. I must emphasize 100%, I real unemployment is around 17% and I think many will agree with me.

I hope the capitalists will find it in their hollow heart to change their focus for once of the betterment of the society and not just their pockets, in the mean time housing prices are still going down (1 in 4 mortgages are underwater), Gold is marching higher (8 straight days higher) and the US Dollar is still getting cracked.

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