Thursday the market did as per my assessment on wednesday. Market opened around the 1318 level as found support in the S&P, from there we mounted higher. Fear still persist in the market about a recession and defensive stocks like Phillip Morris are showing much strength in this market sentiment.
I have been noticing and reading of some weakness in the IT area of the economy especially those to do with outsourcing. One such first to watch for weakness is INFY. Presently in a downtrend should be highly playable as a short if the economy continues to weaken. I am still looking for a pullback in Gold to the $860 area but seems the fast money which was in OIL have set sights on GOLD.
The market has pulled back in volume this week and therefore puts me in the corner for more analysis on the next move. My ideal situation would be for us to get some buying and we move up and then go and test the lows but as said my times that's just my wishful thinking. Watch the solars they seem to be setting up again for a continuation down but I am not going to say when as I am not sure.
Watch for a gap up tomorrow for a short APPLE and BIDU seem to be weak here
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
CSCO disappoints
After the bell CSCO disappointed investors with lack luster earnings for the quarter. Today while watching the market I saw cracks appearing in techs and financials again. BIDU the high flyer is almost 1/2 off its 52 week high. I have been ranting about these high flyers since december and have noted repeatedly of the massive run up on earnings expectations which these companies can't ultimately deliver on.
What has happened in tech especially is a concentrated money flow into a few names, which unlike the internet bubble led to a broad nasdaq rally. These few names have been getting the bulk of the run up of the last 2 years, noticably GOOGLE, APPLE, RIMM, BIDU, FSLR, VMW are just a few. What has happened here is just like looking for a dream job, alot of applicants for very few vacancies.
The break today of 1332 on the S&P was vital for the bulls and in the end it failed to hold miserably. Where do we go? well a test of the lows from 3 weeks ago more than likely will be tested. What happens on that test is the more important question to ask. With a weakening economy and disasterous January for the markets a test of the lows might trigger more selling which hopefully initiates a capitulary climax putting in a tradeable bottom.
Lets see how the market trades thursday and friday, this week has been very slow and we are winding up for a move.
Numbers to watch tomorrow
S&P 1318 support to be watched below that 1296. 1296 would be an S&P futures buy.
OIL in a full bear flag expect a test of $82 then $80
Talk to you tomorrow
What has happened in tech especially is a concentrated money flow into a few names, which unlike the internet bubble led to a broad nasdaq rally. These few names have been getting the bulk of the run up of the last 2 years, noticably GOOGLE, APPLE, RIMM, BIDU, FSLR, VMW are just a few. What has happened here is just like looking for a dream job, alot of applicants for very few vacancies.
The break today of 1332 on the S&P was vital for the bulls and in the end it failed to hold miserably. Where do we go? well a test of the lows from 3 weeks ago more than likely will be tested. What happens on that test is the more important question to ask. With a weakening economy and disasterous January for the markets a test of the lows might trigger more selling which hopefully initiates a capitulary climax putting in a tradeable bottom.
Lets see how the market trades thursday and friday, this week has been very slow and we are winding up for a move.
Numbers to watch tomorrow
S&P 1318 support to be watched below that 1296. 1296 would be an S&P futures buy.
OIL in a full bear flag expect a test of $82 then $80
Talk to you tomorrow
Mid day update
Well the market volatility has definitely slowed down this week. Yesterday 370 point drop was nothing to sneeze at and I was wrong to assume that this week would be an up week. I still think the bulls will make a stand at least into the resistance level again which I missed it by 5 point last week WOW. The beauty of technical analysis!!!!!
Oil looks to be set to take a pullback but honestly I dont think we pullback large enough in the bigger picture. Commodities without a doubt are stretched and are closer to a top than anything else. Google! how the might has falled. Google will be the other side of $400 this year for sure. I am predicting GOOG to be close to 360 at its lows some time this year. Apple is another one I am sure might head back sub $100 if the market get weak as I expect.
2009 will be a very bad year for the markets I can see it setting up a mile away. Sub 1000 on the S&P and sub 10k on the DOW is definite.
Oil looks to be set to take a pullback but honestly I dont think we pullback large enough in the bigger picture. Commodities without a doubt are stretched and are closer to a top than anything else. Google! how the might has falled. Google will be the other side of $400 this year for sure. I am predicting GOOG to be close to 360 at its lows some time this year. Apple is another one I am sure might head back sub $100 if the market get weak as I expect.
2009 will be a very bad year for the markets I can see it setting up a mile away. Sub 1000 on the S&P and sub 10k on the DOW is definite.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
ISM numbers terrible
I forgot that ISM non- manufacturing numbers were due this morning- we got a number in the low 40's which is a sign of very low production. Any number below 50 signifies a weak service environment. It is the first contraction in the service economy in 58 quarters. Let's see how we open off these numbers, futures have taken a hit on the numbers
Tuesday
Monday’ session started this week off on a bad note as a bearish impulse out of the open led to lower prices all day. However, the sell-off wasn’t extreme and didn’t break us down on the market daily charts, so I am maintaining my bullish bias here for the short term. Lets look for some kind of a rebound for today and I wouldn’t be surprised if see it in the form of a Turnaround Tuesday scenario so be prepared to jump on a reversal setup if we flush-out to new lows early in the day.
I still think the market can go higher here before we head down.
I still think the market can go higher here before we head down.
Monday, February 4, 2008
YAWN
What a boring day! but crack as showing us quietly.
Google is now below 500 and i can surely says all the analyst who called for GOOGLE to $1000 will only see that numbers in their dreams. Google will be funny to watch and as noted last week Google can lose $150 in a rush. I think Google will see $375 sometime this year and will announce a split in order to boost their stock price.
Today Gold is showing some weakness and also think Gold is very toppy here as everyone is thinking Gold will goto $1500.
The homebuilding stocks bounce seem to be running out of steam and with a number of people calling for a housing bottom this year a few might set up later in the year for the 401k investors but I wouldn't be holding my breathe.
I am taking ti easy this week as I am burnt out from the last 3 weeks of trading. I will update the blog as usual
Google is now below 500 and i can surely says all the analyst who called for GOOGLE to $1000 will only see that numbers in their dreams. Google will be funny to watch and as noted last week Google can lose $150 in a rush. I think Google will see $375 sometime this year and will announce a split in order to boost their stock price.
Today Gold is showing some weakness and also think Gold is very toppy here as everyone is thinking Gold will goto $1500.
The homebuilding stocks bounce seem to be running out of steam and with a number of people calling for a housing bottom this year a few might set up later in the year for the 401k investors but I wouldn't be holding my breathe.
I am taking ti easy this week as I am burnt out from the last 3 weeks of trading. I will update the blog as usual
Friday, February 1, 2008
Difficult
These daily swings up and down make it very hard to trade. This morning we had news of Microsoft purchasing Yahoo sent the futures higher and then got sold off after we got ISM numbers and JOb numbers which were ever weak. It is no doubt we are in the first leg of an recession.
Oh GOOGLE down to 517 that was some nice call on that short. Right now Google can easily see 425 on a push down if we get really bearish.
Oh GOOGLE down to 517 that was some nice call on that short. Right now Google can easily see 425 on a push down if we get really bearish.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
