Sunday, November 1, 2009

Bonds- 30 YR




The bond complex caught a bid late in the week after weakness early on.

Notice how the 30 YR put in a reversal candle (bull engulfment) on Thursday, the same day we had an explosive equity market. Friday followed through to the upside, finding resistance at the 50 sma.
The lower boundary of the channel was broken, which setup a successful test of the 117-18 pivot. The 50% retracement level was in the same area.
It appears that we have a 5 wave structure down off the 123-25 H. If indeed a 5, then we know, at minimum, we will see another 5. I have labeled this leg as a minor degree 1 or part of an X wave.
Bottom line - I expect to see lower price after a retracement process.

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