Sunday, November 1, 2009

US Dollar




Strong impulsive upside price action for the bucky this past week.

It appears that structure has traced 5 waves up off of the 75.08 L. The question now is - has the dollar bottomed?

Though it's much to early to make that determination, everything is in place for this to be the case.

Notice how RSI tried to break out of the 50% level once again. Will it be successful this time? My guess is that it will, but it may need to pull back again to get a running start.

We are right at the upper boundary of the channel with the 50 sma directly overhead. Both of these are potential resistance.
The 78.085 L is critical support for a bullish case. Should price trade through that level, then obviously, the trend has not changed.
The 77.74 H would be the next logical important pivot that needs to be taken out to the upside.
Throwing the fibs on the impulse wave, assuming it is complete, yields targets of 77.615 (100%) and 78.629 (161.8%).
Bottom line - We should see another 5 wave move up, once the retracement process is finished, if not already. Regardless of whether "the bottom" is in, we should see higher price near-term.

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